In 2010,the Indian real estate sector remains Negative; however, the sector could exhibit signs of stability by the second half of the year. Fitch notes that the fundamentals of India’s real estate sector are improving, as seen by better liquidity and improved demand in the residential segment.
The agency expects growth in 2010 to be driven by government support, especially for the affordable housing segment, improved access to debt and capital markets, and the recovery of real estate demand. Yet, there are concerns that the government may roll out moderately adverse policies to keep property prices in check when economic conditions become more stabilised. In addition, the government may also find it politically difficult to provide a supportive environment if developers continue to increase real estate prices.
In order for Fitch to take a more favourable view of the sector, sustainable operating performances and continued deleveraging by developers over a longer period will be key positive factors, which the agency expects to see during the second half of the year. Demand for both residential and commercial real estate segments slowed down considerably in H109, with a significant drop in property prices. However, H209 witnessed some revival, particularly in the residential segment.
Enhanced affordability, lower mortgage rates, and better job security have helped revive demand for homes. Conversely, demand in the commercial segment remains weak, primarily impacted by over-supply and the scale-back of expansion plans by corporate India. During the crisis, the Information Technology/Information Technology Enabled Services (IT/ITES) sector, where the bulk of the demand for India’s commercial office spaces come from, adopted a conservative staffing approach. This has led to demand lagging behind supply; however, Fitch expects demand for commercial spaces to improve in H210 consequent to the expected resumption of hiring in key sectors like IT/ITES and financial services. That said, based on the current commercial spaces under construction, oversupply risk persists in the sector, which would keep lease rentals under pressure in 2010.